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WHAT ARE OUR WHEREABOUTS FOR TODAY?
THERE OCCURS A MOMENT OF HIGH
TIDE IN A MAN'S LIFE WHICH BRINGS
LUCK IF ONE AVAILS OF IT. BUT IF ONE
MISSES IT, HE WILL HAPPEN TO
FOLLOW A WAY OF SHALLOW WATERS
AND DISASTER.
Shakespeare
BRIGHT OPPORTUNITIES COME TO ALL
BUT ALL TOO MANY DON'T EVEN
SUSPECT THAT HAVE ENCOUNTERED
THEM.
Dunning
All along the latest six years we were involved in pursuing two major strategic goals.
First, Kazakhstan became a sovereign independent state. Today many take the fact for granted but the Kazakhstanis must have remembered that it was a fairly rare occurrence in our history.
Second, we have embarked on the way of implementing broad-scale social, political and economic transformations. The said goals are not yet scored though some areas clearly manifest tangible results.
Now, it is important to give this situation a profound consideration, to analyse our development from the point of view of world expertise and - consequently - to compare the progress of our transformations and that of forming our new institutions with the best world experience. Just as essential for us is to analyse our advantages and flaws. Such work would serve an indispensable prelude to elaborating our own strategy. I'd like to start from analysing our domestic advantages and external opportunities which Kazakhstan enjoys as well as our weakest points and troubles we anticipate from without. As a matter of fact, our country may be proud of eight advantages.
First, we've laid the foundation of our independent sovereign state. We have already set up all the requisite state institutions and each passing month brings ever greater experience and knowledge. Yet development of our state is far from completion.
Second, we have parted with our former political and economic system for good and all. I mean the system that for seventy years dominated our lives. Today we have an altogether new state, and an utterly different political and economic system is at work now.
Third, under the influence of transformations unfolding in our society we all, though wholly unawares, have changed dramatically, while getting used to a qualitatively different system of values and to an altogether new standard of human relations. In short, we have become free. State-and-collective world outlook was replaced by a private-and-individual one and the event reversed each and every aspect of our life. Sure enough, the discarded system offered more secure minimum social benefits and was a success in a number of fields. However, we must remember that this system fell apart because it proved to be noncompetitive from the economic point of view. It obviously failed on the social level too because living standards of the most people lagged behind those abroad. Likewise it meant frustration with reference to a man as a personality who was denied basic freedoms. With time our own experience is sure to prove that free market economy and democratically elected government are capable of bringing prosperity and freedom to Kazakhstan. During the transition period our citizens have suffered much and sacrificed just as much. Yet, we do all this not only for our own benefit but for the benefit of our children and grandchildren, first and foremost.
Fourth, one of our basic assets is undoubtedly quality of our population, that is of our human resources. By right, we may be proud of a highly educated population with a pretty high standard of scientific and creative potential. Few countries can boast of it and many strive to achieve such standard as one of their strategic goals. This indeed is a tremendous achievement of our people... and of the former system for that matter. We must do our utmost to further develop this invaluable asset of ours and grant it ever new, ever civilized opportunities of development.
Fifth, our natural resources are an enormous wealth. Yet, paradoxical as it is, the world experience testifies to the fact that many a country possessing substantial natural resources failed to dispose of them in the best possible way and - consequently - to this day they rate as poor. East-Asian countries marked with most effective and dynamic development happened to be the countries which could hardly boast of natural resources. All this is but to emphasize the fact that actually paramount factors are people themselves, their willpower, energy, persistence and knowledge. In fact, it is the very "key of gold" that would enable us open the door to welfare and independence.
However, a negative world experience is also a good teacher. It shows quite unequivocally that absence of strategies or that of the ability of realization thereof outweighs the notorious potential of natural resources. Hence-the major conclusion we have to make-we have to work out a well-considered strategy and to persistently put it into practice in defiance of all the difficulties. The wealth of the entrails of the earth is the property of all subsequent generations. However the circumstance must not lull us to relaxation. On the contrary, all of us, the Government included, must live and work as though we never possessed it.
Sixth, a truly omnipotent factor represented by our vast land areas, our arable lands. We have many parameters in common with Canada and Australia save for one though capital index-the level of their effectiveness, productivity and exporting potential. Here again, the main, the essential is a realistic and effective strategy, people and financial assets.
The seventh advantage consists in our political stability and in unity of our society. We are by right proud of the fact that we managed to escape direct confrontation within the society and stabilize the situation. Unfortunately many a developed and post-Communist country failed to gain the same. However, so far there is a long way to go to gain the overall stability, the more so-consolidation and unity, and we have to do much for us to feel a single family, to know our objectives and to gain coordination in advancing thereto.
Yet, the aim is not equality in poverty and misery, in constructing a new system of egalitarianism. Naturally, it is out of the question that some ethnic or religious groups be granted any priorities against the other ones. Our strategic objective is a unity of multiform groups of the population, reasonable combination of personal and social fundamentals which add substantially to consensus and hierarchic traditions of our society.
A society in which a dramatically huge gap separates a small group of the rich from masses of poor people will never survive and is doomed to misery. Just as equally there is no future for the country in which various ethnic and religious groups exercise different rights, in which some groups are granted all sorts of benefits and opportunities whereas the others are denied same, where political parties and movements tear the society apart, where there exists enormous unbalance between freedom and responsibilities of mass media, between liberalism and democracy and the might of the state. We have already suffered from one extreme, God beware us of running to another. I think that awareness of these sensible things has already fixed up in social consciousness.
Eight, I'd like to put particular emphasis on tolerance and patience of the Kazakhstanis, on their cordiality and affability. It is witnessed by all foreigners. I am only too grateful to my country-men for their enduring all the hardships and privations of the transition period with such understanding and patience and I deem these qualities to be a serious pledge of our success, of the consolidation of the society, of attracting foreign investments and involvement of the world community in settling our problems.
Along with all these advantages, we can enjoy quite a number of opportunities of purely external nature. The opportunities of that sort are determined, first and foremost, by the geographical, geopolitical and economic position of the country. It is worth while to distinguish three basic opportunities for Kazakhstan.
The first opportunity stems from our geographical position on the very crossroads in the Eurasian region. The process of globalization of international economic and political processes makes this factor a paramount one.
Being a member of the single family of Turkic peoples, our forefathers used this important strategic factor to advantage: all along the legendary Silk Route they set up a broad channel of trade between European and Asian countries. Today we initiate its restoration in cooperation with other countries pertaining to our region and substantiated by support extended by the world community. It goes without saying, that in future the system of trade, financial flows and migration of people between Europe and Asia would be on the rise.
Actually it is the very reason, apart from politically stabilizing factors, which prompted me to advance and to further develop the idea of Eurasianism, which has, I am sure, a bright strategic future.
Single-handed, Kazakhstan, as any other contiguous country, is unable to realize its profitable transit potential. It must be done jointly, in close and mutually advantageous cooperation.
Situated on such cross-roads we do afford a tremendous potential of major marketing areas for our produce all along the perimeter of our borders. Neighbouring markets embracing about 2,000,000,000 people are capable of absorbing- with a rare exception-any Kazakhstani product, provided, naturally, that it is competible and there is a network of related transport routes. These neighbours, more particularly Russia, China, a group of Islamic and Central Asian states, countries of the Near and Middle East, historically represent important world centres. Establishing peace and good-neighbourly relations of confidence on the whole of the Eurasian continent is an indispensable prerequisite for successful development. Countries involved in wars, rivalry, competition and confrontation would impermissibly waste their resources, time and energy thus being doomed to stagnation and lagging behind.
Second, support lent on the part of foreign states and donor agencies to substantiate laborious processes of state construction and implementation of reforms offers us additional opportunities. When compared, quite a number of countries are less fortunate than ours. This factor, more particularly, at the initial stage of the transition period is very important for us because we do need financial assets and knowledge from without.
Third, the process of globalization and scientific and technical progress, especially in the development of new informational and telecommunication technologies, offers unique opportunities for such vast and thinly populated country as ours. Yet nothing guarantees that we shall keep abreast with these processes rather than lag behind them. Consequently, it is utterly indispensable to understand these technologies, to succeed in complete integration thereof in our society and to support scientific and technological personnel.
When speaking about negative features of our present-day reality, one should make note of the fact that many of our weak points are of temporary and transitory nature, rather they result from Soviet legacy and hardships of the arduous transition period.
First, our mentality is shaped up by several generations of people who were brought up in the spirit of Communist principles. Some people enthusiastically took advantage of recent changes, but quite many didn't. People are influenced by subjective and objective factors, they are slow to adapting themselves to eventual changes. As of old, they are waiting for assistance to be rendered on the part of the state in solving their problems. Such philosophy and outlook prevent them from coping with the new difficulties, they deprive them of energy and wish to undertake actions on their own. It is but an open secret that many officials do not understand as yet that today the role of the state doesn't consist in taking decisions which should be taken by people themselves. On the contrary, it must consist primarily in shaping up conditions in which free citizens and the private sector will be able to take effective measures in support of their families and themselves. We must be patient in our transforming mass consciousness. In this we must seek support in the younger generation which is more flexible in adapting to the new system of values and has a fresh vision of the future.
In fact the state is unable to reverse established human mentality overnight. However, the state is capable of accelerating the process of changes through elucidation of objective trends, through bringing home essential information and-most importantly-by way of implementing social and economic policie aimed at self-sufficiency. It would take decades until a new world outlook comes into existence with us.
Second. Objectively, realization of economic reforms, disintegration of the USSR and integration of Kazakhstani economy in the system of world economic relations couldn't help resulting in substantial downfall in volumes of production and- consequently-in deterioration of overall social situation. A good portion of technologically outdated and power-consuming industries, poorly trained, hardly coping with new conditions economic management-such are basic factors that brought about non-competitiveness, shut-down of numerous enterprises, losses in traditional marketing areas, nonpayments and production downfalls. As consequence within the last eight years our country suffered from a more than two-fold decline in the level of production while budget receipts suffered ever greater reduction. If we remember that the said downfall coincided in time with high rates of economic growth in many developing countries, then the implication is that in relative terms our economy suffers from a more than three-fold lagging behind. It is only natural that such figures make us act as effectively and energetically as ever.
Third. As a result of the economic downfall we witness obvious deterioration in incomes and in living standards of most our citizens. Elimination of egalitarianism and creation of an actively functioning labour market resulted in an ever growing gap between the rich and the poor. Unfortunately, the section of the middle class-major support of the state and basic stabilization factor of the society-is quite insignificant.
Fourth. National savings and accumulation of capital which must act as a motive force in the economy proceed rather slowly. Consequently, short of internal capital and savings, Kazakhstan became ever more dependent on the foreign capital, both on the private one and on the international financial agencies. Further rehabilitation of the economy depends on a massive influx of investments which is possible only on condition of eventual improvement in the investment climate.
Fifth, painful transition from the command-and-administrative economy to the market one has given birth to most acute problems of poverty and unemployment hitherto unknown to us on such a wide range. They pave the way for crime and narcomania, they give rise to social depression and build up a potential for social instability. Quite tangible unemployment combined with delayed payments of pensions and wages is generated mostly by economic problems, shortage of financial capital and strategies inefficient in their solutions. Lack of effective programmes for reforming agrarian and social sectors (health care, education, science, etc.) and reduction of budget allocations in crucial conditions of the transition period has brought about deterioration and stagnation in these vital areas of our society.
All these processes naturally generate the sixth weak point of ours-demographic depopulation which is fairly dangerous in any of its manifestations. For the first ever time, over the last 50 post-war years, starting from 1992, we witness a decrease in our population.
Just as negative is the seventh aspect-a poorly prepared and inefficiently organized state. Yet, we can't regard it as a purely Kazakhstani feature. In fact, all post-colonial, developing and post-Communist countries had to counter that phenomenon. Today solution of many a problem depends on this factor and it would take quite a time to cope with it. So far, we are miserably short of people capable of settling strategic problems, of doing it honestly, with a sense of patriotism and on a high professional level.
Long-standing habits of petty interference with all the affairs, altogether unnecessary and harmful halo of secrecy prompting concealment of information from the society and even from each other, bureaucracy and localistic tendencies, nepotism and clannishness, collective irresponsibility, dullness and inertia, inadequate multi-stage hierarchies, corruption - this is but a far from complete "bunch of virtues" of our bureaucracy brought up by the former regime and coming to the fore in the last years to acquire overt, undisguised forms.
Another aspect of the problem is surely a painfully low quality of our corps of enterprise managers.
Much has been done though to address the situation, and every now and then we had to resort to a sort of an administrative surgery. But one thing is obvious - this problem is one of the first priorities.
As the Head of State I must say the following: we thought it reasonable to spare a certain time for our officials to adapt to the situation and we did it. By now this term has already expired and we cannot afford being kind-hearted at the expense of other people, endangering the destiny of the country. Besides it does affect development of the country. We have to most seriously undermine this potential for reproduction of pernicious habits and step up capital reforms among the government staff and that of civil servants.
Finally, we must pay most serious attention to the incompleteness and instability of our legislation. It is not enough to build a foundation-it must be substantiated with floors, walls, roof and all. This is a fairly important issue whose solution determines improvement of the investment climate, reduction of poverty, elimination of crime and development of our social sphere.
I enumerated these negative factors along with the positive ones in order to outline the tasks we'll have to tackle when implementing our national strategy. In identifying advantages and opportunities as well as weak points and potential troubles threatening our country, one has to bear in mind that they are dynamic in time and dialectically interrelated. An opportunity may turn into a trouble and vice versa. What is an advantage today might transform itself into a flaw and vice versa.
Just how effectively we succeed in availing of the opportunities and in neutralizing troubles, in raising our assets and lowering our liabilities-all these depend on ourselves, on this specific way in which we set our goals and priorities, on timeliness and flexibility in implementation thereof.
Our faith. And enthusiasm. Cohesion and labour. "Don't ask what country can do for you, you'd better ask what you can do for the country". These words uttered by John Kennedy in his appeal to the American people sound today as topical as ever.
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